Waiting Mode for Domestic Airlines

National TV channels are showing on their ticker that airlines are open for booking from 15th April onwards. It does not mean that airlines are saying they are flying from 15th onwards. But they remain geared, as last minute it is not possible to get adequate loads and make the flights viable.  There is yet no go-ahead on that and airlines will have to wait and await the government directions.

New Delhi airport wears this deserted look in this shutdown – pic courtesy DIAL

What happens to these bookings if the airlines don’t take off on this scheduled date? The cancellation clauses apply, as they do, in regular transactions. Even then, we gather bookings are slow, and show little enthusiasm among flyers. On prices, the expectation is that these will be modest, neither low nor high. There is no scope for promotional fares. In fact, the induction of capacity is likely to be staggered, and gradually increased depending upon demand. Routes, to start with, will witness much reduced frequencies, and these will pick up as demand rises.  

What about ensuring social distancing on flights? These measures had already set in before the industry was grounded. The middle seat was not being sold, making the load already reduced by a standard 30%, flying only on an available seat factor of 70%. More depends also on what the government directives would be when the flights open again.

Asked to comment upon market expectations, our sources say they expect international routes to take longer than domestic ones. Overall, the mood is expected to be somber and guarded.

There are industry reports that suggest too much bleeding among airlines and that a few of them may close for good! Opinions vary but there is every expectation that every airline will find its own resources. Some may use this opportunity to do course correction. Overall, apart from consolidation within group entities, all airlines are expected to take to the skies, when they open again. 

Do airlines have a plan? Yes, these are being worked out, and there may be more clarity by next week. At present, 100% on the ground, learning to cope with the ground reality.

In an environment full of uncertainties, customers are unsure of whether they will immediately take to air travel, airline managements are unsure of how to respond to the situation if the flights do commence on mid-April. More pointedly, how much time it will take to have the positive sentiment back with the customers. It would help in this situation if government and shareholders can put their heads together and consider the financial implications of taking to the air! It is not luxury, but basic air transport for simultaneously providing some momentum to the economy. The COVID virus is likely to take a few months to be won over, and we cannot just sit back and wait. A viable and sustainable formula that works for the economy and equally, if not more, for saving lives needs to be evolved.

Meanwhile, Air India, awaiting government decision on when flights begin, has stopped taking bookings for both domestic and international flights in April and is accepting selling tickets for flights May 1 onwards. Other Indian carriers like IndiGo, Vistara and SpiceJet are selling tickets for domestic flights on and after April 15 while international flights on offer are from May 1. According to airline professionals, given the vagaries of the business, flights and seats must go online for the maximum time, to allow for more bookings. Viability of the flight is critical, especially in times like these, and this is normal airline practice, worldwide.

Eventually, it will all depend upon how successfully we contain the epidemic, and when the concerned agencies believe we are fit to fly again, given new restrictions like social distancing, etc. These, we believe will come into play for some time to come. Passengers will be equally guarded and will play safe, none would risk sneezing into the air and get censured by the rest on the flight! Do not be surprised if you see fellow passengers wearing not only masks but also gloves. Toilets may used only when in exceptional need. And, preference may be towards bringing food from home for the flight. For some time, the middle seat will not have a fellow passenger looking into what you are reading or watching on your ipad.

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